The truth About Opinion Polls In Kenya

Experts urge Kenyans to learn to accommodate opinion polls

Angela Ambitho, group CEO Infotrak Research & Consulting    Photo: Diana Ngila

Pundits urged Kenyans on Tuesday to learn to embrace opinion polls.

Speaking at a media roundtable organized by Media Focus on Africa, a non-governmental organization disseminating media programmes for social change,media practitioners and experts in opinion polls argued that opinion polls were the new normal in democratic societies.

Presenters, drawn mainly from the media and civil society, included Angela Ambitho, CEO, Infotrak Research & Consulting, Brice Rambaud, Program Director, Democracy and Governance, Internews in Kenya, Linus Kaikai, Managing Editor, NTV and Stephaine Muchai of Article 9.

The roundtable explored on the synergy between opinion polls and democracy in the Kenyan context.

Consequently, the presenters touched on the hot air that opinion polling has been causing in the country.

Comparing opinion polls to the analogy of worst form democracy apart from the others as espoused by Winston Churchil, Ambitho contended that opinion polls are the best bet people have for expressing their opinions in their democratic societies.

They give the populace the freedom to express their sentiments on pertinent issues, she added pointing that dictatorial leaders would stop at nothing to curtail this freedom.

Opinion polling is new in the democratic space, especially in the Kenyan context, and as such it should be treated like a new baby, she urged.

Recent polls have been centers of antagonism in the mainstream Kenyan politics. A recent one pitting presidential hopefuls placed Raila Odinga at the top with 46% popularity followed by Uhuru Kenyatta at 40% popularity, Musalia Mudavadi at 5% popularity while the rest performed dismally at below 1%.

Those who did not fair as well as they anticipated reacted by discrediting opinion polls as schemes by their opponents. 

Rubbishing this noise on opinion polling in Kenyan politics, Ambitho urged the participants to wonder why politicians would be quick to disown outcomes of opinion polls when they are not in their favor, while embracing and advocating for those outcomes whenever they favor them.

Kaikai likened this to the inconsistency amongst Kenyans, something he described as the "tragedy of the century."

"Its high time Kenyans appreciate the fact that everyone does not think alike," Ambitho urged, adding that these diversities are worth celebrating. 

Asked whether opinion polls could trigger post poll violence, especially when the candidate touted in the polls to win fails to clinch the elections, the panelists unanimously answered to the negative.

"We have seen how accurate these polls can be in the recent elections in the United States", Kaikai said.

The resolve to descend into violence is deliberately hatched by the politicians and sold to the gullible public deliberately, he added. 

Similar sentiments were echoed by Ambitho who cautioned that the 2007 elections in Kenya should not be quoted as a case study of the inefficacy of opinion polls.

"No body knows who won the elections" she added quoting the findings of the Kriegler Report.

Credible pollsters naturally abide by set principles of the profession that ensure among others that respondents should not be less than 1500, Ambitho owned. 

She likened the ease and inevitability in abiding by these principles to bathing, brushing teeth and combing one's hair. 

The contention that the media does not utilize information from opinion polls correctly surfaced. 

Rambaud contended that his organization had faulted the way Kenyan journalists interrogated the reports on opinion polls.

Recently, Internews has been training Kenyan journalists on appropriate ways of interogating and reporting on the outcomes of opinion polls, he added.

He urged media houses to ensure that they scrutinize the methodology, the universe of the study, the duration taken in fieldwork, the sponsors and even the data analysis. 

"For credibility, media houses can commission their own polls," he added before dissuading the media houses from relying on instant polls. 

Rambaud and Ambitho concurred that instant polls, the kind that involves the media posing a question and inviting the audience to send text messages, were unscientific, lacked representativeness and and that their outcomes could be easily swayed by stakeholders.

Participants were urged not to allow the application of opinion polls in politics narrow their imagination of their essence. 

Opinion polls have many more important uses, Ambitho directed.

The 2-hour media roundtable, venued at Nairobi's Alliance Francaise, was moderated by Stephanie Muchai.

Are we ready for Konza City?

Are we ready for Konza City?

Kenya’s development trajectory is bound to grow in leaps and bounds. This follows the steady development of giant Vision 2030 projects.

The proposed commencement of Konza City is, therefore, a step in this right direction.   

Its promise of creating entrepreneurship and employment opportunities not only in Kenya but also in the region is a plus in enhancing the economic arm of development. 

However, it is imperative to keep auditing our level of preparedness for this project.  

Motorists try makeshift catapults near the proposed site for Konza City. Local residents are touted to fancy their traditional economic activities such as farming and pastoralism.

Nobody doubts that the fruitation of this project is only realizable in an enabling environment. 

This is considering the project’s dependence on foreign investors. 

Consequently, Kenya should behave herself in a manner that would not scare the investors. 

Electing the right leaders, who show the resolve to tame impunity and respect the rule of law, transitioning well and having proper legislations are just but some of the indicators of our readiness to accommodate Africa’s Silicon Savannah. 

Should we find that that we cannot meet these thresholds, it would only be wise to redesign the master plan of Konza City so that it becomes a market for local farm produce, for this would not require the input of foreign investors.

Blame rampant insecurity on the residents, leaders

Blame rampant insecurity on the residents, leaders

Content analysis on the Kenyan mainstream media at the start of 2013 reveals rampant insecurity in various parts of the country as one of the most conspicuous themes.  The case of the Tana Delta, obviously, tops the list. Two attacks in the region, taking with them at least 22 lives, add to the previous year’s death toll in the area, culminating to a whooping 200 lives lost.

Occasionally, the media chronicle the over 40 police officers that lost their lives at the hands of bandits in the infamous in Suguta Valley, Baragoi in November last year, as they responded to yet another incident of cattle rustling. These incidents, according to the media, smear the Kibaki regime. From this analysis, one thing is for sure though: there is no consensus on the probable explanation to the spate of rampant insecurity in the country.  However, a close examination of the nature and patterns of incidents does not absolve the area residents and their leaders from blame.

Insecurity in the Tana Delta, like in any other place in the country, is an outcome of the cultural activities of the people. That the Pokomo and the Ormas are warring over natural resources, therefore, cannot be far from the theory explaining the spate of insecurity. Cognizant of the delicacy of the land issue amongst the communities, the leaders, incumbent and aspiring would have sparked the very first attacks, the August attacks. The fact that this is happening around the electioneering period justifies this opining.

This is not the case with cattle rustling.

Cattle rustling amongst the Turkana is a normal cultural activity. Considering the value the residents attach to this activity, it would be unimaginable to have a society where cattle rustling is no more. Before the morans embark on their rustling missions, it is natural that they must prepare for any eventualities. Where, therefore, do the area residents come in?

Residents, and oftentimes, the victims of the insecurity incidents play an important role in propping the spate of insecurity in their regions. Let us start with cattle rustling. Communities that value cattle rustling enjoy the benefits of this ancient tradition. They are oblivious of the harms that result from their engagement in the activity. It would be appropriate here to resist the temptation of blaming this cultural activity, as this cultural relativist approach would not achieve much.

Instead, urging the communities to reexamine the consequences of their activities to the larger society is the right way here. Consequently, they should resist the temptation of shielding their neighbors, brothers, fathers and husbands when they engage in the criminal aspects of their cultural activity.

Tana Delta residents equally do nothing wrong pursuing their various cultural activities. However, they are doing great injustice to the larger society by withholding intelligence to the relevant authorities. It would be impossible for the police to understand the people behind the skirmishes unless the residents are willing to corporate, by availing crucial information. Who wants a police force that results to torture, and water boarding to extract intelligence from suspects? I am sure the Tana Delta residents love their people so much and would not imagine them landing into the torturous mechanism of the police.

Residents always know the people behind criminal activities amongst themselves. In the Tana Delta skirmishes, Aljazeera acknowledges that locals are “accusing politicians of fuelling the attacks.” Through their lifestyles, these people would easily reveal their undercover undertakings. In most cases, like in the case of tribal clashes or cattle rustling, the bandits would easily reveal their involvement, albeit implicitly.

The provincial administration cannot, in anyway claim that they do not know the perpetrators of heinous crimes within their areas of jurisdiction.  A good number of these leaders are intertwined in the cultural dichotomy characterizing their regions that they support the criminal activities. It is not surprising that they seldom play ball in taming these incidents within their localities.

For instance, three weeks ago, today, a notorious witchdoctor resident of Muusini village in Kibwezi stirred the wrath of the villagers when her goons, three anonymous men whose missions were suspect to all and sundry, straggled to death a young man within the compound of the witchdoctor, ostensibly for ritual purposes. This was the second incident within a year in which a villager died at the hands of the witchdoctor.

Spontaneously, the villagers descended on her home, killed two of the three goons, and the son of their boss, who before he succumbed to machete wounds, owned that they had killed some 25 villagers.  They also brought down her house, torched her livestock and chicken, before running amok across the neighboring homesteads, looking for the witchdoctor. Meanwhile, she had escaped with the assistance of her relatives. The local assistant chief is known to have played a key role in her escape.

“We know for sure that he led her away from the paths that the residents would pass in her pursuit”, an angry villager offered, on condition of anonymity. He dismissed the possibility of the area leader acting in the best possible way in the situation. “This is because he supports her activities, from which he gets something to keep quiet.” Let him know that we shall oust him from office for promoting crime in the region,” he added, brandishing a wooden log, the type that he admitted used to kill the goats and chicken of the witchdoctor.

Although the police later arrested the woman, the villagers had suffered immensely. Several youths were arrested when the villagers barricaded the Nairobi-Mombasa highway for hours, baying for the blood of the witchdoctor, and perhaps her accomplices.

The overarching reality in this story is that the local leaders are pivotal in supporting rampant crime. These local leaders are privy to suspicious people living within their localities. For instance, the village elders in the Kibwezi case should have suspected the activities of the three goons hired by the witchdoctor, and invited the police in case they were not satisfied.

This is considering that the elders would have difficulties in disbanding the business of the witchdoctor, considering its cultural relevance in the region. With the reluctance of the local leaders to corporate, this story did not attract the necessary attention of the mainstream media.

Certainly, this level of reluctance of the residents and their leaders is not unique to the people of Kibwezi. Tana Delta residents and their leaders must be knowledgeable on the people that keep invading their residential areas torching houses and killing people en masse.This applies also with the residents of Turkana, and, of course, any other part of the country.

Considering that the society is not about to win in its quest to wade crime away, there is need for sustainable solutions. In this light, the need for inclusivity in solving rampant insecurity cannot be overemphasized. Until that point, the mainstream media would continue chronicling incidents of insecurity in one place or the other.